{"gate":{"n":900,"bss":0.11230644813881518,"passes":true,"withheld":null,"horizon_days":7,"family":null,"family_label":"GDELT news tone, 864 of 900","families":[{"family":"goldstein_scale","label":"GDELT news tone (daily)","metric":"goldstein_scale","n":864},{"family":"story_points","label":"Hacker News points (daily)","metric":"story_points","n":28},{"family":"pageviews","label":"Wikipedia page views (daily)","metric":"pageviews","n":8}],"forecaster_version":"m5-v5","as_of":"2026-09-06","evaluated_at":"2026-09-06T07:06:45.093212+00:00"},"maintenance":{"state":"withheld","n_resolved":null,"withheld":{"reason":"resolutions_untrusted","metrics":["commits_hourly","release_published"],"degraded_from":"2025-11-01","detail":"Withheld: every resolved commits_90d and release_90d forecast was scored against our GH Archive push and release data, whose capture is unreliable from 2025-11-01. The whole pool was measured by that instrument, not just its recent rows, so there is no window of it we can stand behind. These numbers return once the questions are re-resolved against the GitHub API."},"clean_window":null,"per_family":{"commits_90d":{"label":"GitHub commits, 90 days","n":null,"skill_claimable":false,"n_pastcast":null,"n_live":null,"brier":null,"brier_skill_score":null,"brier_skill_ci95":null,"enough_to_judge":false,"withheld":{"reason":"resolutions_untrusted","metrics":["commits_hourly"],"degraded_from":"2026-07-01","detail":"Withheld: every resolved commits_90d forecast was scored against our GH Archive push data, whose capture is unreliable from 2026-07-01. The whole pool was measured by that instrument, not just its recent rows, so there is no window of it we can stand behind. These numbers return once the questions are re-resolved against the GitHub API."}},"release_90d":{"label":"GitHub release, 90 days","n":null,"skill_claimable":false,"n_pastcast":null,"n_live":null,"brier":null,"brier_skill_score":null,"brier_skill_ci95":null,"enough_to_judge":false,"withheld":{"reason":"resolutions_untrusted","metrics":["release_published"],"degraded_from":"2025-11-01","detail":"Withheld: every resolved release_90d forecast was scored against our GH Archive release data, whose capture is unreliable from 2025-11-01. The whole pool was measured by that instrument, not just its recent rows, so there is no window of it we can stand behind. These numbers return once the questions are re-resolved against the GitHub API."}}},"judged":null,"min_n_for_a_verdict":30,"open_questions":1671,"earliest_live_resolution":"2026-12-06","calibration_url":"/calibration?horizon=90"},"coverage":{"as_of":"2026-09-20T19:58:42.591018+00:00","unit":"repositories","tracked":{"count":2684,"of":null,"definition":"Repositories with at least one day of history in entity_metric_daily for commits_api_daily or release_published_api. Counted on the series this deployment currently reads. The GH Archive pair still has history for a small number of repositories that the REST API series does not. Holding history is not the same as publishing a forecast."},"questioned":{"count":980,"of":"tracked","definition":"Tracked repositories carrying at least one OPEN maintenance question (families commits_90d or release_90d). EXCLUDES pastcasts (provenance source 'pastcast'), which are point-in-time simulations run against historical data to score the forecaster, not questions asked about the future."},"forecast":{"count":886,"of":"questioned","definition":"Questioned repositories where at least one of those open questions carries a live forecast. EXCLUDES backtest forecasts (forecast.is_backtest = true). An issued forecast is not a scored answer; see the withheld state below before reading these as results."},"withheld":{"reason":"resolutions_untrusted","metrics":["commits_hourly","release_published"],"degraded_from":"2025-11-01","detail":"Withheld: every resolved commits_90d and release_90d forecast was scored against our GH Archive push and release data, whose capture is unreliable from 2025-11-01. The whole pool was measured by that instrument, not just its recent rows, so there is no window of it we can stand behind. These numbers return once the questions are re-resolved against the GitHub API."}},"note":{"headline":"The maintenance track record is withheld.","body":"Withheld: every resolved commits_90d and release_90d forecast was scored against our GH Archive push and release data, whose capture is unreliable from 2025-11-01. The whole pool was measured by that instrument, not just its recent rows, so there is no window of it we can stand behind. These numbers return once the questions are re-resolved against the GitHub API. The first live questions resolve from 6 December 2026 (1,671 open). The skill number above is our existing record on 7-day pastcasts (GDELT news tone, 864 of 900, n=900). Treat the maintenance probabilities as unscored until the re-resolved record is published.","maintenance_only_body":"Withheld: every resolved commits_90d and release_90d forecast was scored against our GH Archive push and release data, whose capture is unreliable from 2025-11-01. The whole pool was measured by that instrument, not just its recent rows, so there is no window of it we can stand behind. These numbers return once the questions are re-resolved against the GitHub API. The first live questions resolve from 6 December 2026 (1,671 open). Treat the maintenance probabilities as unscored until the re-resolved record is published.","text":"The maintenance track record is withheld. Withheld: every resolved commits_90d and release_90d forecast was scored against our GH Archive push and release data, whose capture is unreliable from 2025-11-01. The whole pool was measured by that instrument, not just its recent rows, so there is no window of it we can stand behind. These numbers return once the questions are re-resolved against the GitHub API. The first live questions resolve from 6 December 2026 (1,671 open). The skill number above is our existing record on 7-day pastcasts (GDELT news tone, 864 of 900, n=900). Treat the maintenance probabilities as unscored until the re-resolved record is published. Details: https://anteproof.com/calibration?horizon=90"},"generated_at":"2026-09-20T19:58:43.708401+00:00"}