# Anteproof — week ending 2026-11-05

Every forecast below was logged before its outcome was knowable, and none has been edited since. Period: 2026-10-29 to 2026-11-05.

## Resolved this period (34)

Brier score **0.203** (a coin flip scores 0.250; lower is better), 23 of 34 on the right side of 50%.

| Our forecast | Outcome | Score | Question |
|---:|:---:|---:|:---|
| 80% | YES | 0.042 | Will Democrats win the 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial election? |
| 39% | YES | 0.366 | Will Democrats win the 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial election by 5.00% or more? |
| 26% | NO | 0.065 | Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be between $0.50 and $0.55 on October 31, 2026? |
| 41% | YES | 0.346 | Will the Ornn A100 Index be between $1.00 and $1.25 on October 31, 2026? |
| 21% | NO | 0.046 | Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $4.00 and $4.50 on October 31, 2026? |
| 18% | NO | 0.032 | Will the Ornn A100 Index be between $0.75 and $1.00 on October 31, 2026? |
| 19% | NO | 0.037 | Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.50 and $2.75 on October 31, 2026? |
| 19% | NO | 0.036 | Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $4.50 and $5.00 on October 31, 2026? |
| 39% | YES | 0.369 | Will the Ornn B200 Index be at least $6.50 on October 31, 2026? |
| 37% | YES | 0.394 | Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026? |
| 75% | NO | 0.563 | Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by October 31, 2026? |
| 57% | NO | 0.320 | Next Alibaba Qwen Max (3.9+) released by October 31, 2026? |
| 51% | NO | 0.263 | SSI public model released by October 31, 2026? |
| 3% | NO | 0.001 | Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? |
| 33% | NO | 0.109 | Will Moonshot be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026? |
| 32% | NO | 0.104 | Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026? |
| 54% | YES | 0.211 | Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of October 2026? |
| 35% | NO | 0.125 | Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026? |
| 33% | NO | 0.110 | Will Alibaba be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026? |
| 50% | YES | 0.250 | Will OpenAI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of October 2026? |
| 32% | NO | 0.100 | Will Moonshot be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026? |
| 28% | YES | 0.519 | Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of October 2026? |
| 50% | YES | 0.250 | Will Google have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of October 2026? |
| 19% | NO | 0.036 | Will Google be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)? |
| 42% | NO | 0.172 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? |

…and 9 more, all in the public log.

## New forecasts (154)

| Our forecast | Resolves | Question |
|---:|:---|:---|
| 40% | 2026-11-29 | Will npm package esrecurse reach 207,775,361+ weekly downloads by 29 Nov 2026? |
| 48% | 2026-11-29 | Will npm package p-limit reach 533,443,337+ weekly downloads by 29 Nov 2026? |
| 17% | 2026-11-29 | Will npm package js-levenshtein reach 36,217,542+ weekly downloads by 29 Nov 2026? |
| 40% | 2026-11-29 | Will npm package native-url reach 589,411+ weekly downloads by 29 Nov 2026? |
| 41% | 2026-11-29 | Will npm package request-promise-native reach 3,296,661+ weekly downloads by 29 Nov 2026? |
| 39% | 2026-11-29 | Will npm package optimize-css-assets-webpack-plugin reach 1,838,649+ weekly downloads by 29 Nov 2026? |
| 55% | 2027-02-01 | Will mhammond/pywin32 publish a release by 1 Feb 2027? |
| 58% | 2027-02-01 | Will prettier/prettier publish a release by 1 Feb 2027? |
| 23% | 2027-02-01 | Will sindresorhus/cli-spinners publish a release by 1 Feb 2027? |
| 75% | 2027-02-01 | Will agronholm/anyio publish a release by 1 Feb 2027? |
| 15% | 2027-02-01 | Will rust-lang/cfg-if publish a release by 1 Feb 2027? |
| 46% | 2026-11-29 | Will npm package caniuse-db reach 861,860+ weekly downloads by 29 Nov 2026? |
| 37% | 2026-11-29 | Will npm package @babel/plugin-transform-parameters reach 94,909,541+ weekly downloads by 29 Nov 2026? |
| 36% | 2026-11-07 | Will PyPI package louis reach 372+ weekly downloads by 7 Nov 2026? |
| 40% | 2026-11-29 | Will npm package figures reach 155,916,980+ weekly downloads by 29 Nov 2026? |
| 42% | 2026-11-29 | Will npm package string.prototype.matchall reach 104,156,046+ weekly downloads by 29 Nov 2026? |
| 41% | 2026-11-29 | Will npm package @csstools/postcss-unset-value reach 10,517,233+ weekly downloads by 29 Nov 2026? |
| 29% | 2027-02-01 | Will sindresorhus/tempy publish a release by 1 Feb 2027? |
| 37% | 2027-02-01 | Will pydata/numexpr publish a release by 1 Feb 2027? |
| 38% | 2027-02-01 | Will gyscos/zstd-rs publish a release by 1 Feb 2027? |
| 40% | 2027-02-01 | Will dateutil/dateutil publish a release by 1 Feb 2027? |
| 51% | 2027-02-01 | Will jaraco/inflect publish a release by 1 Feb 2027? |
| 35% | 2026-11-29 | Will npm package csso reach 62,563,890+ weekly downloads by 29 Nov 2026? |
| 41% | 2026-11-29 | Will npm package cors reach 168,632,096+ weekly downloads by 29 Nov 2026? |
| 40% | 2026-11-29 | Will npm package arraybuffer.prototype.slice reach 164,766,572+ weekly downloads by 29 Nov 2026? |

…and 129 more, all in the public log.

## Most at risk this week

The 10 repositories with the lowest open maintenance forecasts, among source repositories of packages with at least 1,000 dependent repositories (ecosyste.ms dependent_repos_count). Lowest of the two families first; a probability is our latest forecast, rounded to a whole percent.

| Package(s) | Repository | P(keeps commit pace) | P(release in 90d) | Dependents | Receipt |
|:---|:---|---:|---:|---:|:---|
| `npm:rxjs` | ReactiveX/rxjs | 3% (515+ commits) | 29% | 2,616,591 | [#271573](https://anteproof.com/questions/271573) · [#271662](https://anteproof.com/questions/271662) |
| `npm:js-yaml` | nodeca/js-yaml | 3% (166+ commits) | — | 1,075,506 | [#275704](https://anteproof.com/questions/275704) |
| `npm:builtins` | juliangruber/builtins | 3% (11+ commits) | 14% | 929,408 | [#276019](https://anteproof.com/questions/276019) · [#306457](https://anteproof.com/questions/306457) |
| `npm:through2` | rvagg/through2 | 3% (24+ commits) | 5% | 849,057 | [#275850](https://anteproof.com/questions/275850) · [#277683](https://anteproof.com/questions/277683) |
| `pypi:chardet` | chardet/chardet | 3% (130+ commits) | 8% | 284,023 | [#275834](https://anteproof.com/questions/275834) · [#281224](https://anteproof.com/questions/281224) |
| `pypi:isort` | PyCQA/isort | 3% (124+ commits) | 56% | 126,691 | [#276066](https://anteproof.com/questions/276066) · [#324407](https://anteproof.com/questions/324407) |
| `pypi:mistune` | lepture/mistune | 3% (90+ commits) | 33% | 64,256 | [#275838](https://anteproof.com/questions/275838) · [#306858](https://anteproof.com/questions/306858) |
| `pypi:asn1crypto` | wbond/asn1crypto | 3% (31+ commits) | — | 34,080 | [#276049](https://anteproof.com/questions/276049) |
| `pypi:statsmodels` | statsmodels/statsmodels | 3% (1,303+ commits) | 56% | 23,993 | [#275604](https://anteproof.com/questions/275604) · [#276094](https://anteproof.com/questions/276094) |
| `crate:num-bigint` | rust-num/num-bigint | 3% (78+ commits) | — | 20,513 | [#275754](https://anteproof.com/questions/275754) |

*A low probability is a forecast that a stated question resolves NO. It is a statement about that question only. The commits_90d and release_90d families have no published track record: their first results were measured against a GitHub event archive whose capture failed during 2026, so we withheld them. New questions resolve against GitHub's own API. A probability is not advice.*

Maintenance families: No track record is published for these questions. Their outcomes were counted from a third-party archive of GitHub events that we have since stopped trusting, so a score would measure that archive rather than the projects. We withheld it instead of publishing a number we cannot stand behind.

## Launch gate

Latest evaluation (2026-10-08): **PASSES**. n = 892 · Brier skill +0.108 · bias z +0.65 · Spiegelhalter Z +0.33

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Anteproof is a product of Recoilix LLC.